Racing! Rob Henie is back with another handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we dig out from all the mud and water at Santa Anita.

Before we get to Rob Henie’s handicapping lesson, let’s reflect on what a disaster the rain turned Saturday’s Santa Anita card into.

--First race, scheduled with nine starters, taken off the turf and down to four.

--Second race, five scheduled, but only four went.

--Third race, eight scheduled on the dirt and eight went.

--Fourth race, eight scheduled on the turf, five went on the dirt.

--Fifth race, eighth scheduled on the dirt, eight went.

--Sixth race, nine scheduled on the turf, four went on the dirt.

--Seventh race, 11 scheduled on dirt and 11 went.

--Eighth race, seven scheduled in the stakes and six went.

--Ninth race, 11 scheduled on the turf, eight went on the wet dirt.

There isn’t a darn thing you can do about the weather, but if it remains very wet this season in Southern California, the impact on Santa Anita could be huge. The horse inventory has a pretty fair share of turf horses and if the races get pulled off the turf, they don’t run. And, should the weather be good for a while, it’s not like you can overschedule the turf course as it would get beaten into submission.

We’ll keep watching with not a single solution on how to fix it.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the seventh race at Santa Anita. Take it away, Rob.

“This is a $6,250 claimer at six furlongs, not real common on the circuit, but the lessons we can take from these bottom level claimers, can be used here or at any track around the country. When I’m looking at these types of races, I’d rather see a horse who’s fresh, not over raced, at the right level where they can be competitive, usually avoiding plummeting droppers. I’m always amazed when I hear credence given to the horse dropping from a $25,000 claimer to a $6,250 claimer? That type of drop is rarely the right horse to be backing, after all, if they were truly looking for simply more confidence, the drop could have been more subtle. I also avoid runners who’ve been running almost exclusively on the turf, now dropped and hitting the main track, which is usually the byproduct of needing the drop and the connections sacrificing the preferred surface to find cheaper foes. As for this one Sunday, top selection is I’LL WRAP IT UP (#8). He’s run well at the lower levels since late spring, now stringing back to back races together, thus, fresh following the brief rest, back going six furlongs, over a track we know he likes, so unlike many in here, we know he’s spotted where he needs to be, nothing sinister about the placement. LOUDEN’S GRAY (#1) is the right level, also likes this track, and notice the rider switch, it’s huge, Martin Pedroza to Joel Rosario. Nothing tricky about this pair, a solid pair and good examples of finding horses who we can hang our hat on, not placed at the bottom with too many underlying factors to contemplate.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 8-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,4

“Positive Notes:

“7 Master Ruler - Has found some nice confidence since being dropped.

“Negative Notes:

“3 Celebrate Life - Only six career starts and clearly no confidence from the confidence.

“TOP PICK: I’LL WRAP IT UP (#8 5-1 Fuentes)

“SECOND CHOICE: LOUDEN’S GRAY (#1 7-2 Rosario)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The first stakes of the day, the Grade 3 $100,000 Las Cienegas Stakes for older fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs, was supposed to be down the hill but had to be moved to the dirt. So, the field went from nine to four.

Belvoir Bay won it by an easy 1 ¼ lengths, paying $4.20 and $2.80. There was no show betting. Lady Silence was second followed by Compelled and Painting Corners.

“She’s just unbelievable,” said winning trainer Peter Miller. “She can do anything, any distance up to a mile, any surface. … I think this may have opened some doors to us in the future, to possibly run on the dirt. … We know she can sprint on the grass obviously, she won the Torrey Pines, and now she won going six and-a-half in the slop so she makes me look good.”

Jockey Flavien Prat, had no complaints.

“We had a good trip and I was very confident the whole way,” Prat said. “She made a good move around the turn and she did it pretty easily.”

It’s going to be difficult for this race to keep its Grade 3 status with such a short field and being moved off the turf.

The other stakes was the Grade 3 $100,000 Can Canada Stakes for older fillies and mares going 1 1/16 on the dirt. Escape Clause took the lead on the far turn and never looked back, winning by 5 ½ lengths. She paid $4.60, $2.80 and $2.40. K P Wildcat was second and Lemoona was third.

“I used to say any time I got a good horse I’d like to come to Santa Anita and win a race,” owner-trainer Don Schnell said. “And then I went years without having a good horse and then all of a sudden I get one and I’ve got an option, but I want to come to Santa Anita, I want to come to Southern California and I’m glad I did now.”

Jockey Tyler Baze was happy with the trip.

“I had a beautiful trip,” Baze said. “I wasn’t sure really what the other two (horses) were gonna do and they went and I just sat there and when I said, ‘GO,’ man… she took off with me. When she got the lead she kind of pulled up a little bit and she never really laid down and ran down the lane, so I don’t know how good she is.”

Santa Anita preview

Here’s hoping that the track has sufficiently dried out for Sunday’s nine-race card, beginning at 12:30 p.m. There are three turf races and a minor stakes. The feature is the $75,000 Kalookan Queen Stakes for older fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs for $75,000.

The huge favorite in the Kalookan Queen, at 2-5, is Selcourt, who you’ll remember we mentioned on Saturday as the favorite in Las Cienegas. Well, she scratched out of that race and will run for $25,000 less purse dollars in this race. So we’ll just repeat what we said on Saturday.

Selcourt, at 2-5, is the favorite for trainer John Sadler and jockey Tyler Baze. She is coming off a disappointing 12 in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies & Mares Sprint. She had won her previous three races. She is four-of-six lifetime at Santa Anita.

The second favorite was supposed to be Lady Suerbee, but she ran second for Sadler in the Las Cienegas. So, we’ll just say it’s tough not to see Selcourt in the winner’s circle. Post time will be about 2 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 8, 7, 6, 8, 10 (1 also eligible), 10, 8, 10.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Laurel (3): $100,000 What A Summer Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Late Night Pow Wow ($2.40)

Laurel (5): $100,000 Native Dancer Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: General Downs ($10.20)

Laurel (7): $100,000 Fire Plug Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Home Run Maker ($9.00)

Gulfstream (9): Grade 3 $100,000 Tropical Turf stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Doctor Mounty ($12.20)

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Say Florida Sandy Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Honor Up ($7.10)

Laurel (8): $100,000 Nellie Morse Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Timeless Curls ($5.00)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Marshula’s River Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Bellavais ($6.60)

Santa Anita (6): Grade 3 $100,000 Las Cienegas Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Winner: Belvoir Bay ($4.20)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 3 $100,000 La Canada Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Escape Clause ($4.20)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

12:58 Aqueduct (7): $100,000 Rego Park Stakes, NY-bred 3-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Blindwillie McTell (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

THIRD RACE: Exacta Box 1-2

Assuming this race stays on turf if offers some value despite the seven-horse field. With the rails out 30 feet and a vulnerable late-running favorite, I think the race is on the front end between #1 Kenjisstorm (3-1) and #2 Law Abidin Citizen (5-1). Tactics will play a part as both horses race near the lead, but our guess is that 'Citizen will make the lead and Kenji will sit second (with the rider switch to Flavien Prat). Hopefully they can go the entire mile distance on a comfortable pace and hold off the closers.

Saturday Result: True Royalty ran near the lead but then dropped back on the second turn and was eventually pulled up. She did walk off the track.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 4 Run Raging Rhino Run (3-1)

The price should be square on this 6-year-old gelding who showed terrific early speed in last 870-yard stakes runnerup try one month ago vs. earlier 2018 distance stakes winner Rule He Will. He shortens up now to 550 yards which is a distance where he posted a neck win last February. Mickey Ward, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, beat a very weak 870-yard stakes field in last start two months ago and Joe Legacy, the 7-2 third choice, tries 550 yards for the first time.

Final thoughts

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And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

TIZANILLUSION had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear and held under left handed urging and steady handling late. LIGHTNING DOVE stalked outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and edged a rival for the place. TIME FOR EBBY stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out some in midstretch and was edged for second. OPERANDI angled in and dueled outside the winner, stalked leaving the turn, was between foes into the stretch and weakened. HAND TIMED.

SAVAGERY sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail, angled to the inside on the turn and won clear under some left handed urging and good handling. SPIN LIGHTNING chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came out in midstretch and outfinished a foe late for the place. SYNTHESIS chased outside a rival then off the rail, angled in some on the turn and was caught late for second. STAY IN YO LANE bobbled slightly but broke on top, saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened.

VANDER KELEN had good early speed and set the pace inside, came out a bit into the stretch, drifted back in passing midstretch and won clear under urging and a long hold late. WHY NOT US stalked off the rail or outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and gained the place late. IRISH BALLAD close up stalking the winner a bit off the rail to the stretch, held third between foes late. GRAZENINAMERICA broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail, split horses into the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for the show outside rivals late. UNION LEADER settled off the rail then inside, saved ground on the turn, continued inside in the stretch and was outfinished for a minor share. RAK CITY chased off the rail early then angled in and saved ground, came out a bit into the stretch and did not rally. JONAS broke alertly then dropped back outside, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. STERLING'S TEMPLE stalked outside a rival or off the rail, came four wide into the stretch and weakened. STERLING'S TEMPLE and GRAZENINAMERICA wore calks.

NOMIZAR had speed outside a rival then inched away, set the pace a bit off the rail, kicked away under urging in the stretch, drifted out a bit late and held under steady handling. FULL ECLIPSE saved ground off the pace, moved up inside on the turn and into the stretch, came out a bit in midstretch and finished willingly. SAMANDAH stalked inside then a bit off the rail, came out into the stretch and gained the show. EMRATA had speed inside the winner then stalked just off the inside, came out into the stretch and weakened. MARINE LAYER chased outside a rival on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. FULL ECLIPSE and MARINE LAYER wore calks.

PIONEEROF THE WEST four wide into the first turn, chased outside, bid three deep leaving the second turn, was carried four wide into the stretch, took a short lead under left handed urging in midstretch and inched clear in the final sixteenth. HOLLAND ROAD had speed between foes then stalked outside a rival, was between horses leaving the backstretch and alongside a foe leaving the second turn, came out some in the stretch and gained the place. LINDANTE three deep into the first turn, dueled between horses, put a head in front between foes leaving the second turn, was carried out some into the stretch, fought back off the rail in midstretch, drifted in late and was outfinished for second. MIDNIGHT SOOT stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail, came out in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CARVILLE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the second turn, came out a bit into the stretch, drifted in late and weakened. CRYSTAL DOME (GB) settled just off the rail, came out leaving the backstretch, continued outside on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. GO GHETTO four wide into the first turn, prompted the pace three deep, dropped back between foes on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back into and in the stretch and weakened then was eased in the final furlong.

BELVOIR BAY (GB) stalked the pace inside, bid alongside the runner-up on the turn, took the lead leaving the turn, inched away in the stretch and proved best under a couple left handed cracks of the whip and an energetic hand ride. LADY SUEBEE stalked early then bid outside a rival to gain the advantage, inched away into the turn, fought back inside on the turn and in the stretch and could not quite match the winner while clearly second best. COMPELLED came off the rail on the backstretch to chase the pace, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PAINTING CORNERS had speed outside a rival then inched away and angled in, dueled inside, stalked on the turn, came out a bit into the stretch and weakened. LADY SUEBEE wore calks.

HONEYMOONZ OVER angled in and dueled outside a rival, took the lead on the turn, inched away leaving the turn and drew clear under urging and steady handling late. ISEE IT IN HISEYES stalked between horses then outside on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and was clearly second best. SCHULACE chased outside then alongside a rival on the turn, swung three deep into the stretch and gained the show. FROM THE DISTANCE between horses early, stalked inside, tried to bid along the rail but steadied in tight into the turn, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed response. LUCKY PATRICK broke a bit slowly and steadied, settled off the rail, split horses leaving the turn and improved position in the drive. FOR THE HUSTLE stalked four wide then between horses, continued outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. REBEL WAR had speed between foes then dueled inside the winner but a bit off the rail, angled to the fence on the turn and weakened in the stretch. CURLY'S MARK settled off the rail, went outside on the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. WARRIOR'S LULLABY stalked outside a rival then between foes, continued inside on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. IMPETU five wide early, stalked four wide, dropped back three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. LUCKY PEGASUS saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a further response. LUCKY PEGASUS and CURLY'S MARK wore calks.

ESCAPE CLAUSE three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, bid three wide then took the lead outside a foe on the second turn, inched away and angled in leaving that turn and drew off under left handed urging and steady handling late. K P WILDCAT chased outside a rival, went up three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and was clearly second best. LEMOONA stalked inside then went between horses into the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged the pacesetter for the show. STRADELLA ROAD sent inside, dueled along the rail, stalked leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and was edged late for third. BERNINA STAR angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, continued inside on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. TRUE ROYALTY had speed between foes then dueled outside a rival, dropped back on the second turn, gave way and was pulled up in the stretch but walked off. TRUE ROYALTY wore calks.

R CHA CHA pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail leaving the backstretch, bid again three wide on the turn to gain the lead nearing the stretch and drew clear under urging and a long hold late. COOL GREEN dropped back inside and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and gained the place late four wide on the line. BABY BEAR'S SOUP stalked outside then off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and edged rivals for the show between foes on the line. ELWOOD J chased outside a rival, angled in on the turn, continued along the fence in the stretch and was edged for third. STORMINSIDE dueled between rivals then outside a foe, battled again between horses on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. INCENSED chased outside or off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. NEW KARMA stalked a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, came out a bit into the stretch and weakened. TOUGH BUT NICE went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and into the stretch, came a bit off the rail in the drive and weakened in the final furlong. NEW KARMA wore calks.