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India has 50 per cent chances of having a ‘normal’ monsoon in June-September this year, according to a preliminary monsoon forecast for 2019 issued by private forecaster Skymet.
“It is a bit early to share the complete details as data is still being collected and information is getting collated. Skymet issues its detailed monsoon forecast between March 15 and April 15 every year and will stick to... [the timeline] this year as well,” it said on its website.
Tracking precursors
Nonetheless, there are precursors to gauge the health of the monsoon. El Nino, the abnormal warming of Equatorial East Pacific, has been impacting monsoon rains more often than not in the recent past.
El Nino is in the news this year, too; it was prominent till December, but since then has shown a consistent drop. Going by early indications, this is going to be a ‘devolving El Nino’ year (rather than an ‘evolving’ one).
“This trend would surely not lead to a drought but ... bountiful rains are also ruled out. This could be one of the normal monsoon years but making a slow start. Initial readings are indicative of some risks attached to some pockets,” it said.
Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet Weather, said that El Nino conditions were on the rise in the Equatorial Pacific till December last. Sea temperatures are now declining, and with them, El Nino probability.
“This will reduce to about 50 per cent by the time the monsoon arrives, and a gradual decline thereafter. This means it is going to be a devolving El Nino year,” Singh said.
‘IMD will wait’
Meanwhile, KJ Ramesh, Director-General, India Met Department (IMD), told BusinessLine that, being a national forecaster, it would wait until March-end to assess evolving global weather/climate conditions before taking a call on the monsoon.
“The winter is not yet over. The IMD will wait until March-end to assess these conditions and factor them into its model simulations. Results of the model runs will be available only by the second week of April, not any time before.”
Anyone can run the model from December, January or February and come out with a set of projections. This is because simulations can be run based on available sea/land/atmospheric conditions, he said.
“We at IMD don’t take them at face value until we are able to track down, till March-end, varying conditions from around the globe with a known bearing on monsoon rainfall variability.
“Any agency has the freedom to come out with its own projections in this regard but, as a national agency, we have to go by basic science and its robust guidance,” Ramesh said.
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