Is Pa. gearing for a bad flu season? Cases at a high not seen in recent years

This year’s flu season is already packing a wallop in Pennsylvania where it’s taken the lives of five people.

The state’s 2,667 confirmed flu cases mark the highest number the state’s seen at this point of the year over the past eight flu seasons, according to Pennsylvania Department of Health data. But it still remains well below peak levels.

On Tuesday, the health department released its weekly report tracking the number of confirmed flu cases in all 67 counties through Nov. 30. When a positive lab test is reported to the state, it’s logged as a confirmed flu case.

All of the flu-related deaths thus far have involved people 50 and older, with the majority over 65.

The latest figures show that flu activity is increasing across all regions of the state with the virus reported in 63 of the state’s counties. Three strains of the flu are all circulating -- although A (H3N2 and H1N1) dominates -- and the predominant virus varies by region and age group.

Areas of the south and parts of the west are seeing elevated activity, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDCs tracking lags a week behind Pennsylvania’s data.

Nationally, B viruses account for the majority of flu cases, while in Pennsylvania they only account for 3.85% of lab confirmed illnesses. The B viruses are mostly affecting young children and people under the age of 24, according to the CDC.

The season officially began Sept. 29 and runs until May 16, 2020, but the illness tends to peak in the middle of the winter, often on the heels of the holidays.

At this point, flu activity in the state is considered widespread as the percent of outpatient visits associated with a flu-like illness have reached the epidemic threshold. There have been 70 flu-related hospitalizations.

When health officials say the flu is widespread, it means there are confirmed outbreaks or increases in confirmed cases of the flu in at least half the regions of the state. It is not an indicator of severity.

The vast majority of people who contract the flu never get tested or go to the doctor. So, the health department cautions its case counts actually only represent a faction of the flu in the state at any time. It is estimated that 5% to 20% of Pennsylvanians, or 600,000 to 2.4 million people, get the flu each year and 120 to 2,000 die from flu-related complications.

Mapping the flu

We analyzed the Department of Health’s available confirmed flu cases data to find which of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties have been hardest hit this flu season. For privacy purposes, the department did not release figures for counties with five or fewer flu cases.

The data covers from the start of the flu season Sept. 29 until Nov. 30.

Click or tap on a county to see the total number of flu cases and its flu rate per 100,000 people.

Here are the 15 hardest hit Pennsylvania counties:

The statewide flu rate was 20.8 cases per 100,000 people.

  • 15. Westmoreland County Flu rate: 27 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 98
  • 14. (tied) Fayette County Flu rate: 31 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 41
  • 14. (tied) Lehigh County Flu rate: 31 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 111
  • 13. Montour County Flu rate: 33 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 6
  • 12. Bradford County Flu rate: 34 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 21
  • 11. Snyder County Flu rate: 35 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 14
  • 10. Somerset County Flu rate: 38 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 29
  • 9. Northampton County Flu rate: 45 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 135
  • 8. Wayne County Flu rate: 49 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 25
  • 7. Allegheny County Flu rate: 54 per 100,000 people. Total cases: 665
  • 6. Cambria County Flu rate: 57 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 79
  • 5. Greene County Flu rate: 61 per 100,000 people. Total cases: 23
  • 4. Bedford County Flu rate: 88 per 100,000 people. Total cases: 43
  • 3. Potter County Flu rate: 99 per 100,000 people. Total cases: 17
  • 2. Washington County Flu rate: 119 per 100,000 people. Total cases: 248
  • 1. Beaver County Flu rate: 180 cases per 100,000 people. Total cases: 305

Sara K. Satullo may be reached at ssatullo@lehighvalleylive.com. Follow her on Twitter@sarasatulloandFacebook. Findlehighvalleylive.com on Facebook.

If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.